Introduction In the last lab activity, you investigated the effectiveness of di
Introduction In the last lab activity, you investigated the effectiveness of different public health measures designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. One of these measures was immunization, or vaccinating a certain percentage of the population against the disease. This has the effect of making susceptible people immediately resistant, or immune, to the disease. Recently, a vaccine against SARS-CoV-II, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been developed. Several organizations have developed their own version of a vaccine, and global vaccination efforts are currently underway. The vaccines are found to be over 90% effective against infection by currently circulating strains of the virus, and most of the older age groups and other individuals at risk for severe disease have already been vaccinated in the developed world. Once a vaccine is developed, the next step is to determine what percentage of the population needs to be immunized to prevent the outbreak of the disease. This will establish specific goals for public health measures designed to promote vaccination (for example, ad campaigns for getting flu shots). Guiding question/research objective As you learned last week, SIR models are one way we can use mathematical modeling to make predictions about required vaccination rates. In this lab, you will use the SIR model simulator to address the following question: What is the vaccination rate that would be needed to prevent an outbreak of COVID-19, and how does that compare to other diseases such as measles and seasonal influenza? You will then write a full lab report (Introduction, Methods, Results, and Discussion) describing your investigation. Hypothesis generation 1. Below is a table of values that contain estimates for Ro, which relates to the contagiousness of an infectious disease. Based on the Ro values for each disease, do you think that preventing an outbreak of COVID-19 will require a higher or lower vaccination rate than preventing an outbreak of seasonal influenza? Explain why or why not. This will be the first part of your hypothesis. (Hint: you could use the Herd Immunity equation from last week’s lab, or HIT = 1 – 1/Ro) 2. Based on the Ro values for each disease, do you think that preventing an outbreak of COVID-19 will require a higher or lower vaccination rate than preventing an outbreak of measles? Explain why or why not. This will be the second part of your hypothesis. (Hint: you could use the Herd Immunity equation from last week’s lab, or HIT = 1 – 1/Ro).

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